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Terengganu vs Selangor II — Malaysia Cup 2019

Terengganu
Terengganu
FT
3 – 1
Selangor II
Selangor II
8/2/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 1Stadium Sultan Ismail Nasiruddin Shah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Terengganu58%
×Draw20%
Selangor II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terengganu
2.24
Selangor II
1.31

Terengganu creates 71% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

creates per match

Terengganu
2.14
Selangor II
1.67

allows per match

Terengganu
0.95
Selangor II
2.33

finishing

Terengganu+0.00on par
Selangor II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terengganu ↓

Selangor II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Terengganu or draw
78%
Terengganu or Selangor II
80%
Draw or Selangor II
42%

Winning margin

Terengganu wins by 2+
36%
Selangor II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Terengganu 1+ goals
89%
Terengganu 2+ goals
65%
Terengganu 3+ goals
38%
Selangor II 1+ goals
73%
Selangor II 2+ goals
38%
Selangor II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Terengganu (draw refunded)
73%
Selangor II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terengganu at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Selangor II away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terengganu attack 2.14 + Selangor II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.24

Selangor II attack 1.67 + Terengganu defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Terengganu scores more
58%
level
20%
Selangor II scores more
22%

Terengganu at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Terengganu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Terengganu vs Selangor II

Terengganu beat Selangor II 3-1 in Malaysia Cup on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Ismail Nasiruddin Shah in Kuala Terengganu.