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Terengganu vs PSM Makassar — ASEAN Club Championship 2024

Terengganu
Terengganu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PSM Makassar
PSM Makassar
1/22/2025ASEAN Club ChampionshipASEAN Club Championship · Group Stage - 4Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Terengganu44%
×Draw28%
PSM Makassar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terengganu
1.33
PSM Makassar
1.00

Terengganu creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Terengganu
1.67
PSM Makassar
0.33

allows per match

Terengganu
1.67
PSM Makassar
1.00

finishing

Terengganu+0.00on par
PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terengganu ↓

PSM Makassar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Terengganu or draw
72%
Terengganu or PSM Makassar
72%
Draw or PSM Makassar
56%

Winning margin

Terengganu wins by 2+
21%
PSM Makassar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Terengganu 1+ goals
74%
Terengganu 2+ goals
38%
Terengganu 3+ goals
15%
PSM Makassar 1+ goals
63%
PSM Makassar 2+ goals
26%
PSM Makassar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Terengganu (draw refunded)
61%
PSM Makassar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terengganu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

PSM Makassar away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terengganu attack 1.67 + PSM Makassar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

PSM Makassar attack 0.33 + Terengganu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Terengganu scores more
44%
level
28%
PSM Makassar scores more
28%

Terengganu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Terengganu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASEAN Club Championship: Terengganu 1–0 PSM Makassar

Terengganu beat PSM Makassar 1-0 in ASEAN Club Championship on January 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium in Kuala Terengganu.