Terengganu 1–0 Petaling Jaya City: Result & Stats

Terengganu

FT

1 – 0

Petaling Jaya City

S. Shaakhmedov 37'

11/7/2020

Malaysia Cup · Round of 16Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Terengganu64%

×Draw22%

Petaling Jaya City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TerengganuExpected goals in this matchPetaling Jaya City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.72

Terengganu

1.82

Petaling Jaya City

0.72

Terengganu creates 153% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

2.14

creates per match

0.50

0.95

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Terengganu

2.14

Petaling Jaya City

0.50

allows per match

Terengganu

0.95

Petaling Jaya City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Terengganu+0.00on par

Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terengganu ↓

Petaling Jaya City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Terengganu or draw

86%

Terengganu or Petaling Jaya City

78%

Draw or Petaling Jaya City

36%

Winning margin

Terengganu wins by 2+

37%

Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Terengganu 1+ goals

84%

Terengganu 2+ goals

54%

Terengganu 3+ goals

27%

Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals

51%

Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals

16%

Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Terengganu (draw refunded)

82%

Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terengganu at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Petaling Jaya City away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terengganu attack 2.14 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Petaling Jaya City attack 0.50 + Terengganu defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Terengganu scores more

64%

level

22%

Petaling Jaya City scores more

14%

Terengganu at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Terengganu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

S. Shaakhmedov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff