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Terengganu vs Perak — Malaysia Cup 2019

Terengganu
Terengganu
CANC
13:00
Perak
Perak
11/12/2020Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Terengganu64%
×Draw19%
Perak17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terengganu
2.32
Perak
1.10

Terengganu creates 111% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Terengganu
2.14
Perak
1.25

allows per match

Terengganu
0.95
Perak
2.50

finishing

Terengganu+0.00on par
Perak+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terengganu ↓

Perak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Terengganu or draw
83%
Terengganu or Perak
81%
Draw or Perak
36%

Winning margin

Terengganu wins by 2+
42%
Perak wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Terengganu 1+ goals
90%
Terengganu 2+ goals
67%
Terengganu 3+ goals
40%
Perak 1+ goals
67%
Perak 2+ goals
30%
Perak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Terengganu (draw refunded)
79%
Perak (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terengganu at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Perak away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terengganu attack 2.14 + Perak defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.32

Perak attack 1.25 + Terengganu defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Terengganu scores more
64%
level
19%
Perak scores more
17%

Terengganu at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Terengganu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Terengganu host Perak

November 12, 2020: Terengganu take on Perak in Malaysia Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.