Tërbuni Pukë 1–1 Luzi 2008: Result & Stats

Tërbuni Pukë

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luzi 2008

12/11/2022

1st Division · Round 11Stadiumi Ismail Xhemali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tërbuni Pukë48%

×Draw28%

Luzi 200824%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tërbuni PukëExpected goals in this matchLuzi 2008

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.86

Tërbuni Pukë

1.35

Luzi 2008

0.86

Tërbuni Pukë creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

0.76

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Tërbuni Pukë

1.00

Luzi 2008

0.97

allows per match

Tërbuni Pukë

0.76

Luzi 2008

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tërbuni Pukë ↓

Luzi 2008 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tërbuni Pukë or draw

76%

Tërbuni Pukë or Luzi 2008

72%

Draw or Luzi 2008

52%

Winning margin

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+

23%

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals

74%

Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals

39%

Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals

15%

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

58%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

21%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)

67%

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tërbuni Pukë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tërbuni Pukë attack 1.00 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tërbuni Pukë scores more

48%

level

28%

Luzi 2008 scores more

24%

Tërbuni Pukë at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tërbuni Pukë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff