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Ter Leede vs GVVV Veenendaal — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ter Leede
Ter Leede
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
12/10/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 18Sportpark De Roodemolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ter Leede23%
×Draw21%
GVVV Veenendaal56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ter Leede
1.23
GVVV Veenendaal
2.04

GVVV Veenendaal creates 66% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ter Leede
1.41
GVVV Veenendaal
2.35

allows per match

Ter Leede
1.73
GVVV Veenendaal
1.06

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw
44%
Ter Leede or GVVV Veenendaal
79%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
77%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+
9%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals
71%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
35%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
13%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
87%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
60%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)
29%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

GVVV Veenendaal attack 2.35 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ter Leede scores more
23%
level
21%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
56%

GVVV Veenendaal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Ter Leede 0–2 GVVV Veenendaal

GVVV Veenendaal beat Ter Leede 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Roodemolen in Sassenheim.