Ter Leede 2–1 Excelsior '31: Result & Stats

Ter Leede

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Excelsior '31

4/30/2022

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 28Sportpark De Roodemolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ter Leede37%

×Draw24%

Excelsior '3139%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ter LeedeExpected goals in this matchExcelsior '31

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.58

Ter Leede

1.53

Excelsior '31

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

1.41

creates per match

1.43

1.73

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Ter Leede

1.41

Excelsior '31

1.43

allows per match

Ter Leede

1.73

Excelsior '31

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par

Excelsior '31+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

Excelsior '31 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw

61%

Ter Leede or Excelsior '31

76%

Draw or Excelsior '31

63%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+

18%

Excelsior '31 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals

78%

Ter Leede 2+ goals

45%

Ter Leede 3+ goals

20%

Excelsior '31 1+ goals

79%

Excelsior '31 2+ goals

47%

Excelsior '31 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)

49%

Excelsior '31 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Excelsior '31 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + Excelsior '31 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Excelsior '31 attack 1.43 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ter Leede scores more

37%

level

24%

Excelsior '31 scores more

39%

Excelsior '31 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Excelsior '31 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff