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Ter Leede vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ter Leede
Ter Leede
FT
1 – 2
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
11/23/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 13Sportpark De Roodemolen (Sassenheim)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ter Leede34%
×Draw24%
DVS 33 Ermelo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ter Leede
1.46
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.64

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

creates per match

Ter Leede
1.41
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

Ter Leede
1.73
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw
58%
Ter Leede or DVS 33 Ermelo
76%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
66%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+
16%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals
77%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
43%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
18%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
81%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
49%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)
45%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ter Leede scores more
34%
level
24%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
42%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Ter Leede 1–2 DVS 33 Ermelo

DVS 33 Ermelo beat Ter Leede 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Roodemolen (Sassenheim).