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DVS 33 Ermelo vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
CANC
13:00
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
4/3/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo58%
×Draw20%
Ter Leede22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.23
Ter Leede
1.30

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 45 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
78%
DVS 33 Ermelo or Ter Leede
80%
Draw or Ter Leede
42%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
36%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
89%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
65%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
38%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
73%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
37%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
73%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
58%
level
20%
Ter Leede scores more
22%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: DVS 33 Ermelo host Ter Leede

April 3, 2021: DVS 33 Ermelo take on Ter Leede in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.