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Ter Leede vs Almere City II — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ter Leede
Ter Leede
FT
1 – 0
Almere City II
Almere City II
10/26/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 9Sportpark De Roodemolen (Sassenheim)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ter Leede37%
×Draw22%
Almere City II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ter Leede
1.75
Almere City II
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ter Leede
1.41
Almere City II
2.00

allows per match

Ter Leede
1.73
Almere City II
2.09

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw
59%
Ter Leede or Almere City II
78%
Draw or Almere City II
63%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+
19%
Almere City II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals
83%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
52%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
25%
Almere City II 1+ goals
84%
Almere City II 2+ goals
55%
Almere City II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)
47%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + Almere City II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.75

Almere City II attack 2.00 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ter Leede scores more
37%
level
22%
Almere City II scores more
41%

Almere City II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ter Leede vs Almere City II

Ter Leede beat Almere City II 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Roodemolen (Sassenheim).