Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Teplice
Teplice
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
2/22/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 23AGC Arena Na Stinadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Teplice38%
×Draw27%
Sigma Olomouc35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice
1.29
Sigma Olomouc
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 119 away

creates per match

Teplice
1.22
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

Teplice
1.19
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Teplice or draw
65%
Teplice or Sigma Olomouc
73%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
62%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+
17%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals
72%
Teplice 2+ goals
37%
Teplice 3+ goals
14%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
71%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
35%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)
52%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Teplice scores more
38%
level
27%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
35%

Teplice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc

Sigma Olomouc beat Teplice 3-1 in Czech Liga on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Teplice.