Teplice 2–2 České Budějovice: Result & Stats

Teplice

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

České Budějovice

4/20/2024

Czech Liga · Round 29AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Teplice51%

×Draw25%

České Budějovice25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepliceExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.08

Teplice

1.65

České Budějovice

1.08

Teplice creates 53% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 102 away

1.22

creates per match

0.98

1.19

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Teplice

1.22

České Budějovice

0.98

allows per match

Teplice

1.19

České Budějovice

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

České Budějovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Teplice or draw

75%

Teplice or České Budějovice

75%

Draw or České Budějovice

49%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+

27%

České Budějovice wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals

81%

Teplice 2+ goals

49%

Teplice 3+ goals

23%

České Budějovice 1+ goals

66%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

29%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)

67%

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + České Budějovice defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

České Budějovice attack 0.98 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Teplice scores more

51%

level

25%

České Budějovice scores more

25%

Teplice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff