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Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019

Teplice
Teplice
Preview
15:00
Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
7/25/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1AGC Arena Na Stinadlech
Big match
43%
Teplice
model favours
43%26%30%

Teplice are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Teplice43%
×Draw26%
Bohemians 190530%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice
1.42
Bohemians 1905
1.14

Teplice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 120 away

creates per match

Teplice
1.22
Bohemians 1905
1.08

allows per match

Teplice
1.19
Bohemians 1905
1.63

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par
Bohemians 1905+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Bohemians 1905 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Teplice or draw
70%
Teplice or Bohemians 1905
74%
Draw or Bohemians 1905
57%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+
21%
Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals
76%
Teplice 2+ goals
41%
Teplice 3+ goals
17%
Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
68%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
32%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)
59%
Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.08 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teplice scores more
43%
level
26%
Bohemians 1905 scores more
30%

Teplice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bohemians 1905 score first in only 30% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 25% of Teplice’s matches
  • 50% of Teplice’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Bohemians 1905 fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Teplice
Balanced
Bohemians 1905
Balanced
45%Possession46%
71%Pass accuracy69%
8.3ShotsBiggest gap11.6
1.06xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TepliceBohemians 1905

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%
1–03–01–11–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Teplice
WWDWW
1905
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 — Match Preview

Teplice face Bohemians 1905 on July 25, 2026 in this Czech Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Teplice host Bohemians 1905 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.