Teplice 1–1 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

Teplice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bohemians 1905

11/25/2023

Czech Liga · Round 16AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Teplice43%

×Draw26%

Bohemians 190530%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepliceExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.14

Teplice

1.42

Bohemians 1905

1.14

Teplice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 120 away

1.22

creates per match

1.08

1.19

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Teplice

1.22

Bohemians 1905

1.08

allows per match

Teplice

1.19

Bohemians 1905

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par

Bohemians 1905+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Teplice or draw

70%

Teplice or Bohemians 1905

74%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

57%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+

21%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals

76%

Teplice 2+ goals

41%

Teplice 3+ goals

17%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

68%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

32%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)

59%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.08 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teplice scores more

43%

level

26%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

30%

Teplice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff