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Tepecikspor vs Serik Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Tepecikspor
Tepecikspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Serik Spor
Serik Spor
10/10/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundŞenol Güneş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tepecikspor66%
×Draw20%
Serik Spor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tepecikspor
2.00
Serik Spor
0.78

Tepecikspor creates 156% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tepecikspor
1.00
Serik Spor
0.75

allows per match

Tepecikspor
0.80
Serik Spor
3.00

finishing

Tepecikspor+0.00on par
Serik Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepecikspor ↓

Serik Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tepecikspor or draw
86%
Tepecikspor or Serik Spor
80%
Draw or Serik Spor
34%

Winning margin

Tepecikspor wins by 2+
41%
Serik Spor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tepecikspor 1+ goals
86%
Tepecikspor 2+ goals
59%
Tepecikspor 3+ goals
32%
Serik Spor 1+ goals
54%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
18%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tepecikspor (draw refunded)
83%
Serik Spor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepecikspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Serik Spor away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepecikspor attack 1.00 + Serik Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Serik Spor attack 0.75 + Tepecikspor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tepecikspor scores more
66%
level
20%
Serik Spor scores more
14%

Tepecikspor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tepecikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tepecikspor vs Serik Spor

Serik Spor beat Tepecikspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 10, 2024.

The match was played at Şenol Güneş Stadyumu in İstanbul.