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Tepecikspor vs Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Tepecikspor
Tepecikspor
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
9/29/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundŞenol Güneş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tepecikspor46%
×Draw25%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tepecikspor
1.57
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.19

Tepecikspor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tepecikspor
1.00
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.57

allows per match

Tepecikspor
0.80
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
2.14

finishing

Tepecikspor+0.00on par
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepecikspor ↓

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tepecikspor or draw
71%
Tepecikspor or Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
75%
Draw or Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
54%

Winning margin

Tepecikspor wins by 2+
23%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tepecikspor 1+ goals
79%
Tepecikspor 2+ goals
46%
Tepecikspor 3+ goals
21%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 1+ goals
70%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 2+ goals
33%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tepecikspor (draw refunded)
61%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepecikspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepecikspor attack 1.00 + Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu attack 1.57 + Tepecikspor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tepecikspor scores more
46%
level
25%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu scores more
29%

Tepecikspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tepecikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tepecikspor vs Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu

Tepecikspor and Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu drew 2-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Şenol Güneş Stadyumu in İstanbul.