Tepatitlán 1–2 Raya2: Result & Stats

Tepatitlán

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Raya2

7/14/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tepatitlán47%

×Draw28%

Raya226%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepatitlánExpected goals in this matchRaya2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.93

Tepatitlán

1.36

Raya2

0.93

Tepatitlán creates 46% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 34 away

1.51

creates per match

0.94

0.92

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Tepatitlán

1.51

Raya2

0.94

allows per match

Tepatitlán

0.92

Raya2

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tepatitlán+0.00on par

Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepatitlán ↓

Raya2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tepatitlán or draw

74%

Tepatitlán or Raya2

72%

Draw or Raya2

53%

Winning margin

Tepatitlán wins by 2+

22%

Raya2 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tepatitlán 1+ goals

74%

Tepatitlán 2+ goals

39%

Tepatitlán 3+ goals

16%

Raya2 1+ goals

61%

Raya2 2+ goals

24%

Raya2 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)

65%

Raya2 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tepatitlán scores more

47%

level

28%

Raya2 scores more

26%

Tepatitlán at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff