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Tepatitlán vs Monarcas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
Preview
01:00
Monarcas
Monarcas
10/10/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12
Big match
47%
Tepatitlán
model favours
47%26%26%

Monarcas score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tepatitlán47%
×Draw26%
Monarcas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tepatitlán
1.46
Monarcas
1.02

Tepatitlán creates 43% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 108 away

creates per match

Tepatitlán
1.51
Monarcas
1.11

allows per match

Tepatitlán
0.92
Monarcas
1.41

finishing

Tepatitlán+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepatitlán ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tepatitlán or draw
74%
Tepatitlán or Monarcas
74%
Draw or Monarcas
53%

Winning margin

Tepatitlán wins by 2+
23%
Monarcas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tepatitlán 1+ goals
77%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
43%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
18%
Monarcas 1+ goals
64%
Monarcas 2+ goals
27%
Monarcas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
64%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Monarcas attack 1.11 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tepatitlán scores more
47%
level
26%
Monarcas scores more
26%

Tepatitlán at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Monarcas win just 14% of their away games
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Monarcas’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tepatitlán
LWWDD
Monarcas
DLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tepatitlán vs Monarcas — Match Preview

Tepatitlán face Monarcas on October 10, 2026 in this Liga de Expansión MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.