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Monarcas vs Tepatitlán — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
8/17/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Monarcas49%
×Draw26%
Tepatitlán25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.47
Tepatitlán
0.96

Monarcas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 107 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.50
Tepatitlán
0.98

allows per match

Monarcas
0.93
Tepatitlán
1.44

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Tepatitlán+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Tepatitlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
75%
Monarcas or Tepatitlán
74%
Draw or Tepatitlán
51%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
24%
Tepatitlán wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
77%
Monarcas 2+ goals
43%
Monarcas 3+ goals
18%
Tepatitlán 1+ goals
62%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
25%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
66%
Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.93 · 112 matches

Tepatitlán away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.50 + Tepatitlán defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tepatitlán attack 0.98 + Monarcas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monarcas scores more
49%
level
26%
Tepatitlán scores more
25%

Monarcas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Tepatitlán

Monarcas beat Tepatitlán 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón in Morelia.