Tepatitlán vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 105+ matches
Tepatitlán48%
Leones Negros UDG25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tepatitlán creates 48% more chances
Season form · 105 home / 137 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tepatitlán ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches
Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 137 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47
Leones Negros UDG attack 1.05 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Tepatitlán at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
CDS Tampico Madero
CancúnTepatitlán
Atlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
TapatíoLeones Negros UDG
Venados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos Uat
DoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tepatitlán host Leones Negros UDG on Sunday, 7 September 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Liga de Expansión MX: Tepatitlán 1–1 Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán and Leones Negros UDG drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 7, 2025.
Goals: R. E. Camacho Lastra (25'), L. Ocon (82').
The match was played at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez in Tepatitlán de Morelos.