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Tepatitlán vs Cancún — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cancún
Cancún
10/18/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Tepatitlán49%
×Draw27%
Cancún24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tepatitlán
1.44
Cancún
0.92

Tepatitlán creates 57% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tepatitlán
1.51
Cancún
0.92

allows per match

Tepatitlán
0.92
Cancún
1.38

finishing

Tepatitlán+0.00on par
Cancún+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepatitlán ↓

Cancún →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tepatitlán or draw
76%
Tepatitlán or Cancún
73%
Draw or Cancún
51%

Winning margin

Tepatitlán wins by 2+
24%
Cancún wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tepatitlán 1+ goals
76%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
42%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
18%
Cancún 1+ goals
60%
Cancún 2+ goals
23%
Cancún 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
67%
Cancún (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches

Cancún away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + Cancún defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cancún attack 0.92 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tepatitlán scores more
49%
level
27%
Cancún scores more
24%

Tepatitlán at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tepatitlán 1–2 Cancún

Cancún beat Tepatitlán 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez in Tepatitlán de Morelos.