Tensung 1–0 Transport United: Result & Stats

Tensung

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Transport United

5/13/2026

Premier League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tensung23%

×Draw20%

Transport United58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TensungExpected goals in this matchTransport United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.37

Tensung

1.45

Transport United

2.37

Transport United creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

1.45

creates per match

2.97

1.77

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Tensung

1.45

Transport United

2.97

allows per match

Tensung

1.77

Transport United

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tensung+0.00on par

Transport United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tensung ↓

Transport United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Tensung or draw

42%

Tensung or Transport United

80%

Draw or Transport United

77%

Winning margin

Tensung wins by 2+

10%

Transport United wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Tensung 1+ goals

77%

Tensung 2+ goals

42%

Tensung 3+ goals

18%

Transport United 1+ goals

91%

Transport United 2+ goals

68%

Transport United 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Tensung (draw refunded)

28%

Transport United (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tensung at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Transport United away — creates 2.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tensung attack 1.45 + Transport United defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Transport United attack 2.97 + Tensung defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tensung scores more

23%

level

20%

Transport United scores more

58%

Transport United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Transport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff