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Tensung vs Samtse — Premier League 2023

Tensung
Tensung
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Samtse
Samtse
7/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonLekeythang Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tensung62%
×Draw18%
Samtse20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tensung
2.73
Samtse
1.52

Tensung creates 80% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tensung
1.45
Samtse
1.28

allows per match

Tensung
1.77
Samtse
4.00

finishing

Tensung+0.00on par
Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tensung ↓

Samtse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tensung or draw
80%
Tensung or Samtse
82%
Draw or Samtse
38%

Winning margin

Tensung wins by 2+
42%
Samtse wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tensung 1+ goals
93%
Tensung 2+ goals
75%
Tensung 3+ goals
50%
Samtse 1+ goals
78%
Samtse 2+ goals
45%
Samtse 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tensung (draw refunded)
76%
Samtse (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tensung at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tensung attack 1.45 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.73

Samtse attack 1.28 + Tensung defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tensung scores more
62%
level
18%
Samtse scores more
20%

Tensung at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tensung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tensung 3–3 Samtse

Tensung and Samtse drew 3-3 in Premier League on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Lekeythang Football Field in Wangdue Phodrang.