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Tensung vs RTC — Premier League 2023

Tensung
Tensung
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
RTC
RTC
7/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Lekeythang Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tensung29%
×Draw22%
RTC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tensung
1.45
RTC
1.95

RTC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tensung
1.45
RTC
2.13

allows per match

Tensung
1.77
RTC
1.45

finishing

Tensung+0.00on par
RTC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tensung ↓

RTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tensung or draw
51%
Tensung or RTC
78%
Draw or RTC
71%

Winning margin

Tensung wins by 2+
13%
RTC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tensung 1+ goals
77%
Tensung 2+ goals
42%
Tensung 3+ goals
18%
RTC 1+ goals
86%
RTC 2+ goals
58%
RTC 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tensung (draw refunded)
37%
RTC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tensung at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

RTC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tensung attack 1.45 + RTC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

RTC attack 2.13 + Tensung defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tensung scores more
29%
level
22%
RTC scores more
49%

RTC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tensung vs RTC

Tensung and RTC drew 2-2 in Premier League on July 11, 2024.

The match was played at Lekeythang Football Field in Wangdue Phodrang.