Tensung 3–1 Druk Lhayul: Result & Stats

Tensung

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Druk Lhayul

11/10/2023

Premier League · Round 7Lekeythang Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tensung47%

×Draw21%

Druk Lhayul32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TensungExpected goals in this matchDruk Lhayul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.77

Tensung

2.17

Druk Lhayul

1.77

Tensung creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

1.45

creates per match

1.78

1.77

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Tensung

1.45

Druk Lhayul

1.78

allows per match

Tensung

1.77

Druk Lhayul

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tensung+0.00on par

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tensung ↓

Druk Lhayul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Tensung or draw

68%

Tensung or Druk Lhayul

79%

Draw or Druk Lhayul

53%

Winning margin

Tensung wins by 2+

28%

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tensung 1+ goals

89%

Tensung 2+ goals

64%

Tensung 3+ goals

36%

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

83%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

53%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Tensung (draw refunded)

60%

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tensung at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Druk Lhayul away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tensung attack 1.45 + Druk Lhayul defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.17

Druk Lhayul attack 1.78 + Tensung defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tensung scores more

47%

level

21%

Druk Lhayul scores more

32%

Tensung at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tensung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff