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Tensung vs Bhutan U19 — Premier League 2023

Tensung
Tensung
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bhutan U19
Bhutan U19
8/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Lekeythang Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tensung49%
×Draw22%
Bhutan U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tensung
2.01
Bhutan U19
1.52

Tensung creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tensung
1.45
Bhutan U19
1.26

allows per match

Tensung
1.77
Bhutan U19
2.57

finishing

Tensung+0.00on par
Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tensung ↓

Bhutan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tensung or draw
71%
Tensung or Bhutan U19
78%
Draw or Bhutan U19
51%

Winning margin

Tensung wins by 2+
28%
Bhutan U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tensung 1+ goals
87%
Tensung 2+ goals
59%
Tensung 3+ goals
32%
Bhutan U19 1+ goals
78%
Bhutan U19 2+ goals
45%
Bhutan U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tensung (draw refunded)
63%
Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tensung at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tensung attack 1.45 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.01

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Tensung defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tensung scores more
49%
level
22%
Bhutan U19 scores more
29%

Tensung at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tensung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tensung vs Bhutan U19

Tensung beat Bhutan U19 3-1 in Premier League on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at Lekeythang Football Field in Wangdue Phodrang.