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Tennis Borussia vs Staaken — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tennis Borussia
Tennis Borussia
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Staaken
Staaken
3/2/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 19Mommsenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tennis Borussia50%
×Draw21%
Staaken29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tennis Borussia
2.11
Staaken
1.57

Tennis Borussia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tennis Borussia
2.20
Staaken
1.38

allows per match

Tennis Borussia
1.77
Staaken
2.02

finishing

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par
Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennis Borussia ↓

Staaken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Tennis Borussia or draw
71%
Tennis Borussia or Staaken
79%
Draw or Staaken
50%

Winning margin

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+
29%
Staaken wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals
88%
Tennis Borussia 2+ goals
62%
Tennis Borussia 3+ goals
35%
Staaken 1+ goals
79%
Staaken 2+ goals
46%
Staaken 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)
63%
Staaken (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennis Borussia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennis Borussia attack 2.20 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.11

Staaken attack 1.38 + Tennis Borussia defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tennis Borussia scores more
50%
level
21%
Staaken scores more
29%

Tennis Borussia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tennis Borussia vs Staaken

Tennis Borussia beat Staaken 5-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Mommsenstadion in Berlin.