Tennis Borussia 3–1 Sparta Lichtenberg

Tennis Borussia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sparta Lichtenberg

12/1/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14Mommsenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tennis Borussia47%

×Draw20%

Sparta Lichtenberg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tennis BorussiaExpected goals in this matchSparta Lichtenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.83

Tennis Borussia

2.24

Sparta Lichtenberg

1.83

Tennis Borussia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

2.20

creates per match

1.89

1.77

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Tennis Borussia

2.20

Sparta Lichtenberg

1.89

allows per match

Tennis Borussia

1.77

Sparta Lichtenberg

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennis Borussia ↓

Sparta Lichtenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Tennis Borussia or draw

68%

Tennis Borussia or Sparta Lichtenberg

80%

Draw or Sparta Lichtenberg

53%

Winning margin

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+

28%

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals

89%

Tennis Borussia 2+ goals

65%

Tennis Borussia 3+ goals

38%

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals

84%

Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals

54%

Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)

60%

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennis Borussia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

Sparta Lichtenberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennis Borussia attack 2.20 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.24

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 1.89 + Tennis Borussia defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tennis Borussia scores more

47%

level

20%

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more

32%

Tennis Borussia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff