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Tennis Borussia vs RSV Eintracht — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tennis Borussia
Tennis Borussia
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
K. Grigoriadis 67'
E. Onal 63'
K. Dewald 48', 18'
T. Nattermann 45'
T. Fron 88'
J. Anders 62'
6/1/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 29Stadion Rehberge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tennis Borussia47%
×Draw21%
RSV Eintracht32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tennis Borussia
2.09
RSV Eintracht
1.72

Tennis Borussia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tennis Borussia
2.20
RSV Eintracht
1.67

allows per match

Tennis Borussia
1.77
RSV Eintracht
1.98

finishing

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par
RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennis Borussia ↓

RSV Eintracht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tennis Borussia or draw
68%
Tennis Borussia or RSV Eintracht
79%
Draw or RSV Eintracht
53%

Winning margin

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+
27%
RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals
88%
Tennis Borussia 2+ goals
62%
Tennis Borussia 3+ goals
34%
RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
82%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
51%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)
59%
RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennis Borussia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

RSV Eintracht away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennis Borussia attack 2.20 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.09

RSV Eintracht attack 1.67 + Tennis Borussia defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tennis Borussia scores more
47%
level
21%
RSV Eintracht scores more
32%

Tennis Borussia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Dewald
45'
T. Nattermann
48'
K. Dewald
62'
J. Anders
63'
E. Onal
67'
K. Grigoriadis
88'
T. Fron

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tennis Borussia vs RSV Eintracht

Tennis Borussia beat RSV Eintracht 5-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on June 1, 2024.

Goals: K. Dewald (18', 48'), T. Nattermann (45'), J. Anders (62'), E. Onal (63'), K. Grigoriadis (67'), T. Fron (88').

The match was played at Stadion Rehberge in Berlin.