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Tennessee vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

Tennessee
Tennessee
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
5/29/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 18Ravenwood High School soccer filed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tennessee41%
×Draw23%
Tri-Cities36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tennessee
1.78
Tri-Cities
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tennessee
1.72
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

Tennessee
1.60
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw
64%
Tennessee or Tri-Cities
77%
Draw or Tri-Cities
59%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+
21%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals
83%
Tennessee 2+ goals
53%
Tennessee 3+ goals
26%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
81%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
50%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)
53%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 1.72 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + Tennessee defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tennessee scores more
41%
level
23%
Tri-Cities scores more
36%

Tennessee at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tennessee 2–3 Tri-Cities

Tri-Cities beat Tennessee 3-2 in USL League Two on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Ravenwood High School soccer filed in Brentwood, Tennessee.