Tennessee 2–1 Southern Soccer Academy

Tennessee

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Southern Soccer Academy

5/22/2025

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 4Franklin High School Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tennessee38%

×Draw23%

Southern Soccer Academy39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TennesseeExpected goals in this matchSouthern Soccer Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.68

Tennessee

1.64

Southern Soccer Academy

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.91

creates per match

1.45

1.91

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Tennessee

1.91

Southern Soccer Academy

1.45

allows per match

Tennessee

1.91

Southern Soccer Academy

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par

Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

Southern Soccer Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw

61%

Tennessee or Southern Soccer Academy

77%

Draw or Southern Soccer Academy

62%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+

19%

Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals

81%

Tennessee 2+ goals

49%

Tennessee 3+ goals

23%

Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals

81%

Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals

50%

Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)

49%

Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Southern Soccer Academy away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 1.91 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.64

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.45 + Tennessee defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tennessee scores more

38%

level

23%

Southern Soccer Academy scores more

39%

Southern Soccer Academy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Southern Soccer Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff