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Tennessee vs Peachtree City — USL League Two 2018

Tennessee
Tennessee
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Peachtree City
Peachtree City
6/29/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 52Ravenwood High School soccer filed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tennessee53%
×Draw22%
Peachtree City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tennessee
1.94
Peachtree City
1.25

Tennessee creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tennessee
1.72
Peachtree City
0.90

allows per match

Tennessee
1.60
Peachtree City
2.15

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par
Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

Peachtree City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw
75%
Tennessee or Peachtree City
78%
Draw or Peachtree City
47%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+
31%
Peachtree City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals
86%
Tennessee 2+ goals
58%
Tennessee 3+ goals
30%
Peachtree City 1+ goals
71%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
36%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)
68%
Peachtree City (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 1.72 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + Tennessee defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tennessee scores more
53%
level
22%
Peachtree City scores more
25%

Tennessee at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tennessee vs Peachtree City

Tennessee beat Peachtree City 2-1 in USL League Two on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Ravenwood High School soccer filed in Brentwood, Tennessee.