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Tenisca vs Vera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenisca
Tenisca
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vera
Vera
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tenisca54%
×Draw23%
Vera23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenisca
1.80
Vera
1.08

Tenisca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

creates per match

Tenisca
1.78
Vera
1.11

allows per match

Tenisca
1.05
Vera
1.82

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par
Vera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Vera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw
77%
Tenisca or Vera
77%
Draw or Vera
46%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+
30%
Vera wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals
83%
Tenisca 2+ goals
54%
Tenisca 3+ goals
27%
Vera 1+ goals
66%
Vera 2+ goals
29%
Vera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)
70%
Vera (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Vera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Vera defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.80

Vera attack 1.11 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tenisca scores more
54%
level
23%
Vera scores more
23%

Tenisca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenisca vs Vera

Tenisca beat Vera 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves in La Palma.