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Tenisca vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenisca
Tenisca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
5/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tenisca42%
×Draw27%
UD San Fernando32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenisca
1.38
UD San Fernando
1.16

Tenisca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tenisca
1.78
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Tenisca
1.05
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw
68%
Tenisca or UD San Fernando
73%
Draw or UD San Fernando
58%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+
20%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals
75%
Tenisca 2+ goals
40%
Tenisca 3+ goals
16%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
69%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
32%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)
57%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.38

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tenisca scores more
42%
level
27%
UD San Fernando scores more
32%

Tenisca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tenisca 2–1 UD San Fernando

Tenisca beat UD San Fernando 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves in La Palma.