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Tenisca vs Tamaraceite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenisca
Tenisca
CANC
00:00
Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tenisca49%
×Draw26%
Tamaraceite26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenisca
1.54
Tamaraceite
1.04

Tenisca creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 81 away

creates per match

Tenisca
1.78
Tamaraceite
1.02

allows per match

Tenisca
1.05
Tamaraceite
1.30

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par
Tamaraceite+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Tamaraceite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw
74%
Tenisca or Tamaraceite
74%
Draw or Tamaraceite
51%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+
25%
Tamaraceite wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals
79%
Tenisca 2+ goals
45%
Tenisca 3+ goals
20%
Tamaraceite 1+ goals
65%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
28%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)
66%
Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Tamaraceite away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Tamaraceite defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tamaraceite attack 1.02 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tenisca scores more
49%
level
26%
Tamaraceite scores more
26%

Tenisca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenisca vs Tamaraceite — Match Preview

Tenisca face Tamaraceite on March 29, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tenisca host Tamaraceite at Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.