Tenisca 1–2 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Tenisca

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Úrsula

4/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tenisca53%

×Draw25%

Santa Úrsula22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeniscaExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.98

Tenisca

1.65

Santa Úrsula

0.98

Tenisca creates 68% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 92 away

1.78

creates per match

0.90

1.05

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Tenisca

1.78

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Tenisca

1.05

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw

78%

Tenisca or Santa Úrsula

75%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

47%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+

28%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals

81%

Tenisca 2+ goals

49%

Tenisca 3+ goals

23%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

62%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

26%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)

70%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tenisca scores more

53%

level

25%

Santa Úrsula scores more

22%

Tenisca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff