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Tenisca vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenisca
Tenisca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
4/19/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tenisca45%
×Draw26%
Panadería Pulido30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenisca
1.50
Panadería Pulido
1.18

Tenisca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 94 away

creates per match

Tenisca
1.78
Panadería Pulido
1.31

allows per match

Tenisca
1.05
Panadería Pulido
1.21

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par
Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Panadería Pulido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw
70%
Tenisca or Panadería Pulido
74%
Draw or Panadería Pulido
55%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+
22%
Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals
78%
Tenisca 2+ goals
44%
Tenisca 3+ goals
19%
Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
69%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
33%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)
60%
Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tenisca scores more
45%
level
26%
Panadería Pulido scores more
30%

Tenisca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenisca 1 – 1 Panadería Pulido

Tenisca and Panadería Pulido drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves in Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma).