Tenisca 1–1 Marino: Result & Stats

Tenisca

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marino

4/2/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tenisca53%

×Draw24%

Marino23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeniscaExpected goals in this matchMarino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.04

Tenisca

1.71

Marino

1.04

Tenisca creates 64% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

1.78

creates per match

1.03

1.05

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Tenisca

1.78

Marino

1.03

allows per match

Tenisca

1.05

Marino

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par

Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Marino →

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw

77%

Tenisca or Marino

76%

Draw or Marino

47%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+

29%

Marino wins by 2+

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals

82%

Tenisca 2+ goals

51%

Tenisca 3+ goals

24%

Marino 1+ goals

65%

Marino 2+ goals

28%

Marino 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)

70%

Marino (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Marino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Marino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Marino attack 1.03 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tenisca scores more

53%

level

24%

Marino scores more

23%

Tenisca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff