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Tenisca vs Atlético Victoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenisca
Tenisca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
12/6/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tenisca60%
×Draw22%
Atlético Victoria18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenisca
1.88
Atlético Victoria
0.90

Tenisca creates 109% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tenisca
1.78
Atlético Victoria
0.74

allows per match

Tenisca
1.05
Atlético Victoria
1.97

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par
Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Atlético Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw
82%
Tenisca or Atlético Victoria
78%
Draw or Atlético Victoria
40%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+
35%
Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals
85%
Tenisca 2+ goals
56%
Tenisca 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Atlético Victoria away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atlético Victoria attack 0.74 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tenisca scores more
60%
level
22%
Atlético Victoria scores more
18%

Tenisca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenisca 1 – 0 Atlético Victoria

Tenisca beat Atlético Victoria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves in La Palma.