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Tenisca vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenisca
Tenisca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Tenisca44%
×Draw27%
Atlético Paso29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenisca
1.38
Atlético Paso
1.08

Tenisca creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tenisca
1.78
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Tenisca
1.05
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw
71%
Tenisca or Atlético Paso
73%
Draw or Atlético Paso
56%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals
75%
Tenisca 2+ goals
40%
Tenisca 3+ goals
16%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tenisca scores more
44%
level
27%
Atlético Paso scores more
29%

Tenisca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tenisca 1–1 Atlético Paso

Tenisca and Atlético Paso drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz in Tenerife.