Tenerife 1–1 Lugo: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lugo

José Jurado 37'

Alberto Rodríguez 65'

8/21/2022

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tenerife48%

×Draw29%

Lugo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchLugo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.81

Tenerife

1.30

Lugo

0.81

Tenerife creates 60% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 105 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

0.80

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tenerife

1.15

Lugo

0.83

allows per match

Tenerife

0.80

Lugo

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Lugo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

77%

Tenerife or Lugo

71%

Draw or Lugo

52%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

22%

Lugo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

73%

Tenerife 2+ goals

37%

Tenerife 3+ goals

14%

Lugo 1+ goals

56%

Lugo 2+ goals

19%

Lugo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

67%

Lugo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 149 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.15 + Lugo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lugo attack 0.83 + Tenerife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tenerife scores more

48%

level

29%

Lugo scores more

23%

Tenerife at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Óscar Whalley

Lugo · G

8.0

Match Events

-5'

37'

44'

46'

46'

Chris Ramos← Ángel Baena

57'

Juanpe← Clavería

59'

Carlos Ruiz

59'

Álex Corredera

64'

Aitor Sanz

65'

Alberto Rodríguez↳ Zé Ricardo

68'

Miguel Loureiro← Jordi Calavera

70'

Waldo Rubio← S. Shashoua

80'

Alberto Rodríguez

82'

Teto← M. Dauda

90+6'

Josep Señé

90+6'

Dani Vidal← Josep Señé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TenerifeLugo

Overview

59%Possession41%

23Total Shots7

3Corners2

16Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots7

8On Target2

13Off Target3

2Blocked2

17Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

414Total Passes281

345Accurate Passes195

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Tenerife 1 – 1 Lugo

Tenerife and Lugo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on August 21, 2022.

Goals: José Jurado (37'), Alberto Rodríguez (65').

Tenerife controlled possession (59%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz in Tenerife.

Tenerife vs Lugo — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Tenerife 1 – 1 Lugo