Tenerife 0–3 Levante: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Levante

1/7/2025

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Tenerife37%

×Draw31%

Levante32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.93

Tenerife

1.03

Levante

0.93

Tenerife creates 11% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 65 away

1.15

creates per match

1.06

0.80

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Tenerife

1.15

Levante

1.06

allows per match

Tenerife

0.80

Levante

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

68%

Tenerife or Levante

69%

Draw or Levante

63%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

14%

Levante wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

64%

Tenerife 2+ goals

28%

Tenerife 3+ goals

9%

Levante 1+ goals

61%

Levante 2+ goals

24%

Levante 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

54%

Levante (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 149 matches

Levante away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.15 + Levante defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Levante attack 1.06 + Tenerife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tenerife scores more

37%

level

31%

Levante scores more

32%

Tenerife at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff