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Tenerife vs FC Cartagena — Segunda División 2018

Tenerife
Tenerife
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
10/5/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tenerife48%
×Draw28%
FC Cartagena24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife
1.36
FC Cartagena
0.88

Tenerife creates 55% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 105 away

creates per match

Tenerife
1.15
FC Cartagena
0.95

allows per match

Tenerife
0.80
FC Cartagena
1.57

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw
76%
Tenerife or FC Cartagena
72%
Draw or FC Cartagena
52%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+
23%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals
74%
Tenerife 2+ goals
39%
Tenerife 3+ goals
16%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
59%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
22%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)
66%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 149 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.15 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Tenerife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tenerife scores more
48%
level
28%
FC Cartagena scores more
24%

Tenerife at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Tenerife 2–0 FC Cartagena

Tenerife beat FC Cartagena 2-0 in Segunda División on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz in Tenerife.