Tenerife 1–2 Extremadura: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Extremadura

Álex Muñoz 21'

Nono 75' (pen)

G. Zarfino 8'

10/5/2019

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tenerife43%

×Draw29%

Extremadura28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.94

Tenerife

1.23

Extremadura

0.94

Tenerife creates 31% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 42 away

1.15

creates per match

1.07

0.80

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Tenerife

1.15

Extremadura

1.07

allows per match

Tenerife

0.80

Extremadura

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

72%

Tenerife or Extremadura

71%

Draw or Extremadura

57%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

19%

Extremadura wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

71%

Tenerife 2+ goals

35%

Tenerife 3+ goals

13%

Extremadura 1+ goals

61%

Extremadura 2+ goals

24%

Extremadura 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

60%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 149 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.15 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Tenerife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tenerife scores more

43%

level

29%

Extremadura scores more

28%

Tenerife at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Álex Muñoz

Tenerife · D

9.4

Match Events

8'

G. Zarfino

10'

Róbert Mazáň

21'

Álex Muñoz↳ Luis Milla

62'

Borja Lasso← Luis Milla

68'

Nono← Cristian Rodríguez

70'

Dani Gómez← F. Malbašić

72'

Álex López← Willy Ledesma

74'

Carlos Ruiz

75'

Álex Bermejo Escribano

75'

NonoPenalty

77'

R. Mierez← Álex Bermejo

80'

Sergio Gil← Óscar Pinchi

85'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TenerifeExtremadura

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots16

5Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots16

4On Target7

10Off Target4

6Blocked5

11Inside Box9

9Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

486Total Passes354

397Accurate Passes260

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls13

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Tenerife vs Extremadura

Extremadura beat Tenerife 2-1 in Segunda División on October 5, 2019.

Goals: G. Zarfino (8'), Álex Muñoz (21'), Nono (75' pen).

Tenerife controlled possession (57%) and registered 20 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz in Tenerife.

Tenerife vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tenerife vs Extremadura