Tenerife 1–0 Arenteiro: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arenteiro

Fabricio 43'

11/29/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tenerife61%

×Draw24%

Arenteiro15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchArenteiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.67

Tenerife

1.67

Arenteiro

0.67

Tenerife creates 149% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.95

creates per match

0.75

0.58

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Tenerife

1.95

Arenteiro

0.75

allows per match

Tenerife

0.58

Arenteiro

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Arenteiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Arenteiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

85%

Tenerife or Arenteiro

76%

Draw or Arenteiro

39%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

34%

Arenteiro wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

81%

Tenerife 2+ goals

50%

Tenerife 3+ goals

23%

Arenteiro 1+ goals

49%

Arenteiro 2+ goals

15%

Arenteiro 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

81%

Arenteiro (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Arenteiro away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.95 + Arenteiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Arenteiro attack 0.75 + Tenerife defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tenerife scores more

61%

level

24%

Arenteiro scores more

15%

Tenerife at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

28'

30'

43'

63'

M. Balde← J. de Miguel

64'

P. Moya← B. Val

64'

69'

69'

72'

77'

84'

85'

88'

Juanjo← A. Sanz

88'

N. Lopez← N. Gil

88'

A. Ulloa← Fabricio

88'

J. Guerrero← A. Bastida

90+1'

V. Mingo

90+7'

A. Ulloa

Tenerife

Arenteiro

1

Alvin

22

▼

4

3

15

11

▼

Cuellar

25

▼

Bastida

6

▼

Val

10

Camargo

18

Mingo

14

▼

1

19

12

4

2

10

▼

Gil

15

⚽

▼

Fabricio

16

▼

Sanz

20

▼

Manjam

9

▼

Miguel

18

Enric

Manager: Álvaro

63'▲M. Balde←▼J. de Miguel

72'▲M. Mesa←▼A. Manjam

88'▲Juanjo←▼A. Sanz

88'▲N. Lopez←▼N. Gil

88'▲A. Ulloa←▼Fabricio

Tenerife substitutes

13Vuyst3Zoilo5Calavera6Juanjo7Montes11Mesa14Lopez17Balde22Gonzalez23Jorge27Ulloa28Sabina

Manager: Raúl Jardiel

64'▲P. Moya←▼B. Val

64'▲D. Gonzalez←▼Safrai

69'▲M. Ochoa←▼J. Cuellar

69'▲M. Alpha←▼J. Sanchez

88'▲J. Guerrero←▼A. Bastida

Arenteiro substitutes

13Garcia2Moya8Gonzalez12Ochoa16Guerrero19Alpha30Iglesias