Tenerife 2–0 Arenas Getxo: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arenas Getxo

M. Balde 82'

Enric 43'

4/18/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tenerife64%

×Draw22%

Arenas Getxo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchArenas Getxo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.69

Tenerife

1.81

Arenas Getxo

0.69

Tenerife creates 162% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.95

creates per match

0.79

0.58

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Tenerife

1.95

Arenas Getxo

0.79

allows per match

Tenerife

0.58

Arenas Getxo

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Arenas Getxo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

86%

Tenerife or Arenas Getxo

78%

Draw or Arenas Getxo

36%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

38%

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

84%

Tenerife 2+ goals

54%

Tenerife 3+ goals

27%

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

50%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

15%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

82%

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.95 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.81

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Tenerife defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tenerife scores more

64%

level

22%

Arenas Getxo scores more

14%

Tenerife at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

26'

43'

51'

60'

60'

68'

C. Mattheus← K. Mathieu

68'

O. Bazaga← S. Boriko

72'

J. Merino← U. Collado

72'

J. Lartitegi← E. Zabaleta

80'

G. Valles← N. Lopez

81'

C. Mutilva← P. Alvarez

82'

M. Balde

86'

A. Ulloa← Enric

Tenerife

Arenas

1

Gastesi

24

▼

Boriko

4

▼

Alvarez

5

Garcia

20

▼

Zabaleta

7

▼

16

8

2

9

15

▼

1

19

3

12

2

23

▼

Jorge

15

▼

Fabricio

6

Juanjo

14

▼

Lopez

9

Miguel

18

⚽

▼

Enric

Manager: Alvaro Cervera

60'▲M. Balde←▼J. Jorge

60'▲I. Chapela←▼Fabricio

80'▲G. Valles←▼N. Lopez

86'▲A. Ulloa←▼Enric

Tenerife substitutes

13Vuyst4Leon5Yaakobishvili7Montes11Mesa17Balde22Valles24Chapela27Ulloa28Sabina29Fernandez34Ybarra

68'▲C. Mattheus←▼K. Mathieu

68'▲O. Bazaga←▼S. Boriko

72'▲J. Merino←▼U. Collado

72'▲J. Lartitegi←▼E. Zabaleta

81'▲C. Mutilva←▼P. Alvarez

Arenas Getxo substitutes

13Pena3Cozar6Merino12Lartitegi19Mutilva22Mattheus27Bazaga