Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tenerife vs Alcorcon — Segunda División 2018

Tenerife
Tenerife
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
12/11/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Tenerife46%
×Draw29%
Alcorcon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife
1.24
Alcorcon
0.84

Tenerife creates 48% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 106 away

creates per match

Tenerife
1.15
Alcorcon
0.89

allows per match

Tenerife
0.80
Alcorcon
1.33

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw
75%
Tenerife or Alcorcon
71%
Draw or Alcorcon
54%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+
20%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals
71%
Tenerife 2+ goals
35%
Tenerife 3+ goals
13%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
57%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
21%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)
64%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 149 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.15 + Alcorcon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Alcorcon attack 0.89 + Tenerife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tenerife scores more
46%
level
29%
Alcorcon scores more
25%

Tenerife at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Tenerife 1–0 Alcorcon

Tenerife beat Alcorcon 1-0 in Segunda División on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz in Tenerife.