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Tenerife II vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife II
Tenerife II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tenerife II44%
×Draw27%
UD San Fernando29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife II
1.40
UD San Fernando
1.07

Tenerife II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tenerife II
1.83
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Tenerife II
0.88
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw
71%
Tenerife II or UD San Fernando
73%
Draw or UD San Fernando
56%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+
21%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals
75%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
41%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
17%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
66%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
29%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)
61%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.40

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tenerife II scores more
44%
level
27%
UD San Fernando scores more
29%

Tenerife II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenerife II 0 – 0 UD San Fernando

Tenerife II and UD San Fernando drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto in Tenerife.