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Tenerife II vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife II
Tenerife II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
3/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 26Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tenerife II47%
×Draw26%
Panadería Pulido27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife II
1.52
Panadería Pulido
1.09

Tenerife II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 94 away

creates per match

Tenerife II
1.83
Panadería Pulido
1.31

allows per match

Tenerife II
0.88
Panadería Pulido
1.21

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par
Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Panadería Pulido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw
73%
Tenerife II or Panadería Pulido
74%
Draw or Panadería Pulido
53%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+
24%
Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals
78%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
45%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
20%
Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
66%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
30%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)
63%
Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tenerife II scores more
47%
level
26%
Panadería Pulido scores more
27%

Tenerife II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenerife II vs Panadería Pulido

Tenerife II beat Panadería Pulido 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto in Tenerife.