Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tenerife II vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife II
Tenerife II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tenerife II42%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife II
1.38
Las Palmas II
1.17

Tenerife II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 49 away

creates per match

Tenerife II
1.83
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Tenerife II
0.88
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw
68%
Tenerife II or Las Palmas II
73%
Draw or Las Palmas II
58%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+
19%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals
75%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
40%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
69%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
33%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)
57%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.38

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tenerife II scores more
42%
level
27%
Las Palmas II scores more
32%

Tenerife II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenerife II vs Las Palmas II

Tenerife II beat Las Palmas II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto in Tenerife.